The world of work is in a state of upheaval! Many readers are now thinking: “Yes, of course, but isn’t it always?” And that’s correct, of course. What’s new is the speed. The upheaval is advancing more quickly than expected. Reasons for this are the advancing digitisation and automation. They are fundamentally changing previous work processes and organisation models. In the not too distant future, "office work" will take on a completely different appearance than before.
The typical workplace with a computer, telephone, desk and filing cabinet is on the verge of becoming extinct. Today, we already carry almost all of our relevant information around with us on our smartphones and notebooks, accessible from anywhere at any time. This development will continue and even get stronger! Fixed workplaces will soon be something of the past, keyboards and screens are also disappearing. Instead, 3D holograms dominate in virtual meetings and glass sheets are taking over the function of computer displays. Artificial intelligence is becoming a living reality: Devices are interlinked and analyse users and their needs. Instead of waiting for user questions, the relevant information is sent automatically – almost intuitively – according to the situation at hand.
Workplace: an obsolete model.
The problem is that the fast pace at which change is taking place and the general unwillingness of society to adapt do not go well together at all. However, we shouldn’t make the mistake of believing that the rate of change will slow down just because most people want things to stay the way they are. Technological innovations do not just enter the world because people want them to. They come into the world because companies want to sell devices. If in the year 2020 we have to buy a new smartphone because our old one has broken, we won’t be able to buy the current model anymore. There will only be new ones which are able to give users a more intelligent answer to their questions than other people could. Using these new smartphones has a big advantage: It makes us faster, more efficient and better. So we use them. In this way, rapid innovations find their way to us without us actually wanting them to.
“We, humans, are masters in adapting to changing conditions.”
As regards office buildings, change is progressing somewhat more slowly. Companies must plan their new office building in such a way that is adapts to the needs of their employees. With white walls, carpeting, desks, chairs, computers and telephones, most of our offices look exactly the same as they did 100 years ago in Kafka's day. Our places of work in the year 2025 will look very different. When we want to concentrate on reading or writing, we will need a small, quiet room. If we consult as part of a team, we will need a communication room where team members can sit at a virtual table as if they were there, even though they are hundreds of kilometres away. And when we process and plan emails, a coffeehouse or lounge atmosphere will meet our requirements far more than a sterile 20 square metre office. The office buildings of the future will all have these three types of rooms. In the course of the working day, employees will be happy to frequently switch from one type of room to another in order to find the ideal environment for the next stage of work.
Not only the appearance of offices will change in the near future, workflows will also be different in 2025. Digitisation will destroy about one million jobs over the next ten years - but in the same period of time, there will be 6.5 million more people retiring in Germany than young people joining the labour force. In addition, approximately 1.5 million qualified unemployed and 800,000 qualified foreigners will get a job, while 800,000 part-time workers will get back into full-time employment. As a result, there will be two to three million jobs in Germany that cannot be filled because many people lack the necessary know-how. The balance of power between employers and employees will therefore also change: Employees will be able to impose requirements on their employers - if these are not met, they will simply change jobs thanks to the surplus of job vacancies.
This situation, of course, will not last forever and will only continue for about 20 to 25 years. Only afterwards, in around 2050, millions of jobs will be replaced by computers.
Many of us will have to relearn
The transformation of the world of work also raises the question of what role the older generation of workers will play in ten years' time. The answer is relatively simple - they will have to keep up. If our country cannot meet the demand for labour, it will produce less, the economy will lose momentum and entrepreneurs will pay less tax. The consequence for ordinary citizens would be an increase in social costs and excise taxes. As nobody can be in favour of that, workers will be desperately looked for. It is more likely that older people will continue working after retirement than foreign workers being hired from abroad. Of course, older people usually find it a little harder to cope with new technologies. But we know from our history that we humans are masters in adapting to changing conditions. I therefore predict the following: Many of us will have to retrain. It will be difficult, but we will do it and it will be worth it. Because life in 2025 will be better than it is today.
Sven Gábor Jánszky
We, humans, are masters in adapting to changing conditions.